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What are the chances that you will see a white Christmas?
AccuWeather’s Damien Lodes analyzes the likelihood of each part of the country experiencing a white Christmas.
While predictions for this year’s white Christmas are still being refined, those of you looking for this ultimate Christmas decoration may want to start the trek west or north.
Because if you’re looking for a near-surefire way to get a white Christmas, you might want to head to Fairbanks, Alaska, where snow has been on the ground virtually every Christmas since weather records began, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
And this year is no exception, as there was more than two feet of snow on the ground as of Monday morning, December 16, 2024, according to the National Weather Service.
But what if Alaska is a little too far from home? What about locations closer to home?
White Christmas Opportunities in the Lower 48
In the Lower 48, these are the places you usually go if you want a white Christmas: Minnesota, Maine, upstate New York and western New York, the Allegheny Mountains of Pennsylvania and West Virginia, pretty much everywhere in Idaho and of course the Rockies or the Sierra Nevada Mountains, NOAA said.
Historically, much of northern Minnesota and Wisconsin, most of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, and much of the western mountain areas have a 90% or better chance of a white Christmas. Cities like Marquette, Michigan, or International Falls, Minnesota, have had snow on the ground almost every Christmas since tracking weather conditions, according to NOAA.
This year, Marquette had 12 inches of snow as of Monday, while International Falls had a foot, so both are good bets.
Some of the largest cities with the best chance of a white Christmas, based on historical averages, are Minneapolis, Green Bay, Buffalo and Burlington, Vermont, according to AccuWeather.
As of Monday, Buffalo is less than an inch away from the recent round of lake effect snow events. Minneapolis had a track, while Green Bay and Burlington saw bare ground, based on weather service data Monday morning.
Map shows the historical probability of a white Christmas
According to NOAA, “although the map shows the climatological probability of snow-covered ground on December 25, actual conditions this year could differ greatly from these probabilities as existing weather patterns will determine whether there is snow on the ground or whether snow will traps.” fall on Christmas Day.
“These probabilities are only useful as a guide to show where snow on the ground is more likely,” NOAA said.
What is a white Christmas?
It doesn’t have to snow on December 25 to meet the weather service’s definition of a white Christmas: there just needs to be at least an inch of snow on the ground. A trace of snow doesn’t count either, reports Weather.com.
On average, about 38% of the Lower 48 will have an inch of snow on the ground on Christmas Day, according to 21 years of data collected by NOAA.
Since 2003, those percentages have varied widely from year to year, from just 17.6% last year to as much as 63% of the contiguous U.S. in 2009, according to Weather.com.
Blame Bing?
America’s fascination with a white Christmas dates back at least to 1942, when Bing Crosby sang the wistful song in the movie “Holiday Inn.” The song’s lyrics, written by Irving Berlin, present a romanticized image of Christmas past, “just like the ones I used to know.”
A second film – White Christmas, also starring Crosby – was released in 1954.
Going back even further, scientists say the fascination can be traced back to a swirling blizzard of nostalgia, music, popular literature, the rise of Victorian mass culture – and even the Little Ice Age.
